With the provincial election set by legislation for October 4 of this year, the results of the February 8th by-elections could prove to be the trend that we may see in October.

There are three by-elections scheduled for February 8th 2007.

The riding of Burlington was held by Progressive Conservative and former Cabinet Minister Cam Jackson. Cam left provincial politics to seek the position of Mayor of the City of Burlington. Cam was successful on November 13th and has left a very successful riding association and a riding that the P.C. Party will expect to win. All three major political parties have credible candidates that will make this a very interesting election.

The riding of Markham was held by former councillor and Liberal MPP Tony Wong. Tony resigned his position as MPP just prior to the legislature returning last September. Tony had high expectations in the McGuinty government when he won the seat from former P.C. Cabinet Minister David Tsubouchi in 2003 but those expectations never materialized into a cabinet seat.

The Markham by-election will be very hard fought. The Liberals would find this loss extremely disappointing. The PC Party would like to have a seat in the GTA as our leader John Tory will be seeking a Toronto seat, Don Valley West.

The riding of York South-Weston became vacant when former Liberal cabinet minister Joe Cordiano suddenly resigned last fall. There was no explanation, but it was very well known that the relationship between Premier McGuinty and Mr. Cordiano was not wonderful. The two had fought for the Liberal leadership back in 1996.

The riding of York South-Weston will be very hard fought. The Liberals have held this seat for many years and a loss would be devastating to the Liberal Party. The NDP will strongly challenge this seat following their successful win in the Parkdale-High Park by-election last summer when the seat was vacated by Gerard Kennedy who ran unsuccessfully for the Federal Liberal leadership.

The PC party has a strong candidate however, the P.C. party has never been highly successful in the York South-Weston area.

The Liberal party will certainly want to maintain the Markham and York South-Weston ridings. A loss in either or both of these ridings may in fact be the trends that will set the tone for October 4. There are many other factors that could affect the outcomes on October 4, but these three by-elections are so close to October 4, that they must be taken very seriously.